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The North Korean long-range ballistic missile test has dramatically raised the stakes on the Korean peninsula, but experts say the US has limited military options to tackle the mounting threat from Pyongyang without risking retaliation that has the potential to destroy Seoul.
 
朝鮮的遠(yuǎn)程彈道導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)大大提高了朝鮮半島局勢(shì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但專家們指出，要解決朝鮮構(gòu)成的不斷加劇的威脅、同時(shí)避免對(duì)方做出可能摧毀首爾的報(bào)復(fù)，美國(guó)的軍事選項(xiàng)有限。
Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs during the Obama administration, said the only “viable path” to resolving the North Korean situation was for the US to work with China, because the military tools available to the US carried very high risks.
曾在奧巴馬政府擔(dān)任參謀長(zhǎng)聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席的邁克?馬倫(Mike Mullen)表示，解決朝鮮局勢(shì)的唯一“可行路徑”就是美國(guó)與中國(guó)合作，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)可以采用的軍事手段都帶有很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
In 2006, as North Korea prepared to launch a long-range ballistic missile, William Perry, a former US defence secretary, and Ash Carter, who was defence secretary under Barack Obama, urged George W Bush to launch a pre-emptive surgical strike to destroy the rocket.
2006年朝鮮準(zhǔn)備發(fā)射一枚遠(yuǎn)程彈道導(dǎo)彈時(shí)，美國(guó)前國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)威廉?佩里(William Perry)以及后來(lái)在巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府擔(dān)任國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)的阿什頓?卡特(Ashton Carter)呼吁小布什(George W Bush)采取先發(fā)制人的外科手術(shù)式打擊，摧毀那枚火箭。
While the Pentagon has plans for possible strikes on North Korea, most experts say it has fewer options now because advances by Pyongyang in recent years have raised the already considerable risks attached to launching even a limited strike on the regime of Kim Jong Un.
雖然五角大樓備有對(duì)朝鮮發(fā)動(dòng)潛在打擊的計(jì)劃，但多數(shù)專家認(rèn)為它現(xiàn)在的選擇更少了。在以前，哪怕只是對(duì)金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權(quán)實(shí)施有限打擊都有相當(dāng)大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，朝鮮近些年的進(jìn)步更是加大了這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
“There is no heat coming from us that is going to work,” said Mr Mullen. “There are military options, but the question is what happens when you use them. It’s less about whether we can be effective — to some degree we can have a significant impact — but what is Kim going to do?”
“我們頭腦發(fā)熱是沒(méi)有用的，”馬倫說(shuō)，“存在軍事選項(xiàng)，但問(wèn)題是會(huì)有什么后果。關(guān)鍵不是我們能否實(shí)施有效打擊——在某種程度上，我們可以產(chǎn)生重大影響——而是金正恩會(huì)怎么做？”
Mr Mullen said the risks ranged from a conventional North Korean attack on Seoul to the possibility that Mr Kim could target South Korea with nuclear weapons. “The risk to every one of those [US] options is exceptionally high, and nobody knows, especially with this leader. He is so unpredictable and he hasn’t been unpredictable for long enough to become predictable.”
馬倫表示，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)非常多，從朝鮮對(duì)韓國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)常規(guī)打擊，到金正恩可能用核武器瞄準(zhǔn)韓國(guó)。“（美國(guó)）每一種選項(xiàng)都有非常高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，誰(shuí)也不知道會(huì)高到何種程度，尤其朝鮮有這么一位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。他是如此不可預(yù)測(cè)，他不可預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間還不夠長(zhǎng)，以致人們完全沒(méi)法對(duì)他進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。“
James Mattis, the US defence secretary, alluded to the risks earlier this year when he said any military solution would be “tragic on an unbelievable scale”. He later added that “it would be a war like nothing we have seen since 1953” in reference to the Korean war.
美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)今年早些時(shí)候就暗示了這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，當(dāng)時(shí)他表示，任何軍事解決方案都將“造成令人難以置信的巨大悲劇”。他后來(lái)又說(shuō)，“那將是一場(chǎng)自1953年朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以來(lái)最為慘烈的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”。
William Fallon, a retired admiral who headed Pacific Command in 2006, said the US had no good options. “Do we think that if we launch some military option that Kim will give up his weapons? That is not going to happen,” he said. “We had a lot better intelligence on Iran and it was obvious that military strikes were not a viable option then.”
2006年時(shí)擔(dān)任美國(guó)太平洋司令部司令的退役海軍上將威廉?法倫(William Fallon)表示，美國(guó)沒(méi)有好的選擇。“有些人是否認(rèn)為，如果我們采取某種軍事選項(xiàng)金正恩就將放棄他的武器？這種情況不會(huì)發(fā)生，”他說(shuō)，“我們對(duì)伊朗的情報(bào)要好得多，但很明顯那時(shí)軍事打擊也并非可行選項(xiàng)。”
Mr Fallon said Mr Kim stored his missiles in underground bunkers across the country which made them much harder to detect. “These guys are the best diggers in the world. Everything is underground. I just don’t think it is realistic to cover all the likely sites before they could retaliate. Back [in 2006] they wanted the world to see it and didn’t have a lot of options. Now they have many sites, and it is clear they are working on solid fuel rockets. That means you don’t have that warning time.”
法倫表示，金正恩將導(dǎo)彈藏在朝鮮全國(guó)各地的地下掩體中，這讓它們更難被偵測(cè)到。“這些家伙是世界上好的挖掘者。所有的東西都在地底下。我認(rèn)為要在他們能夠?qū)嵤﹫?bào)復(fù)之前覆蓋所有的可能地點(diǎn)是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。以前（2006年）他們希望讓世界看到它，沒(méi)有很多選項(xiàng)。現(xiàn)在他們有了很多地點(diǎn)，而且他們顯然正在研究固體燃料火箭。這意味著你沒(méi)有那種預(yù)警時(shí)間。”
One former military intelligence officer who specialised in identifying North Korean targets during the Clinton administration said it was increasingly hard to find them. “Deciding a target list was a nightmare then and it’s only gotten worse now,” the person said.
一位曾在克林頓(Clinton)政府時(shí)期專注于發(fā)現(xiàn)朝鮮目標(biāo)的軍事情報(bào)官員表示，越來(lái)越難以發(fā)現(xiàn)它們。這位官員說(shuō)：“當(dāng)時(shí)確定目標(biāo)清單就是一場(chǎng)噩夢(mèng)，現(xiàn)在變得更糟糕了。”
“Everything is hidden underground in mountain tunnels — it is really tough to target because you can’t see it and it’s really deep,” said the former officer. “We used to call them tunnel rats — they use to dig underground like crazy, using unlimited slave labour and whatever they wanted the budget to be.”
他表示：“一切都秘密隱藏在穿山隧道——真的很難找到目標(biāo)，因?yàn)槟銦o(wú)法看到它，而且它真的很深。我們過(guò)去常將他們稱為隧道鼠，他們就像瘋了一樣打洞，使用無(wú)限量的苦工，而且想要多少預(yù)算就有多少預(yù)算。”